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	<title>Dan Lewis &#187; Economics</title>
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	<link>http://www.danlewis.org</link>
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		<title>Latest radio interview on ACR and website update coming</title>
		<link>http://www.danlewis.org/2011/10/15/latest-radio-interview-on-acr-and-website-update-coming/</link>
		<comments>http://www.danlewis.org/2011/10/15/latest-radio-interview-on-acr-and-website-update-coming/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Oct 2011 22:39:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Lewis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shale gas]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.danlewis.org/?p=261</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dear all, forgive me for being a bit remiss in updating this website &#8211; I have been concentrating my efforts on www.economicpolicycentre.com, www.future-es.com and www.ukcrimestats.com Anyway, there are some changes coming shortly to www.danlewis.org because looking at it now, I realise quite a lot of it is out of date and I&#8217;m missing a large number of articles that I have written in the recent and distant past. In the meantime, here is an interview I did at 3 in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear all, forgive me for being a bit remiss in updating this website &#8211; I have been concentrating my efforts on <a href="http://www.economicpolicycentre.com">www.economicpolicycentre.com</a>, <a href="http://www.future-es.com">www.future-es.com</a> and <a href="http://www.ukcrimestats.com">www.ukcrimestats.com</a></p>
<p>Anyway, there are some changes coming shortly to <a href="http://www.danlewis.org">www.danlewis.org</a> because looking at it now, I realise quite a lot of it is out of date and I&#8217;m missing a large number of articles that I have written in the recent and distant past.</p>
<p>In the meantime,<a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/ac-nation/2011/10/14/breaking-it-down-with-dt"> here is an interview I did at 3 in the morning a few days ago on American Conservative Radio with John Terry </a>- about 40 minutes and despite the early hours, I really enjoyed it.  Both my hosts were very easy to talk to &#8211; real pros &#8211; and we covered the Euro crisis, shale gas, energy security and renewable costs.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a shame we don&#8217;t really have talk radio in Britain &#8211; over here it&#8217;s all about soundbites, quick questions and answers and then it&#8217;s over in 3-4 minutes. So it was doubly nice not to be interrupted, be given time to make a point and think of something else on the hoof to say !</p>
<p>Thanks again to American Conservative Nation for inviting me on to their show.</p>
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		<title>Return of the Quangos . . .</title>
		<link>http://www.danlewis.org/2011/01/07/return-of-the-quangos/</link>
		<comments>http://www.danlewis.org/2011/01/07/return-of-the-quangos/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Jan 2011 08:47:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Lewis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.danlewis.org/?p=249</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[To the news again ! Congratulations to the All Party Public Administration Select Committee led by Bernard Jenkin MP for producing a report. I haven&#8217;t seen it yet but the headlines that I have are basically correct &#8211; as I explained in the Yorkshire Post a few months ago, this was no bonfire. Speaking on LBC to Nick Ferrari this morning at around 8.10 a.m. I argued that  quangos are right at the heart of the debate about the future [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12132341">To the news again</a> !</p>
<p>Congratulations to the All Party Public Administration Select Committee led by Bernard Jenkin MP for producing a report. I haven&#8217;t seen it yet but the headlines that I have are basically correct &#8211; <a href="http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/opinion/Dan-Lewis-We-should-cull.6551340.jp">as I explained in the Yorkshire Post a few months ago, this was no bonfire</a>.</p>
<p>Speaking on LBC to Nick Ferrari this morning at around 8.10 a.m. I argued that  quangos are right at the heart of the debate about the future of delivering public services. Right now, too many are delivered in a market vacuum by quangos who are under no commercial pressure to perform. The Cabinet Office should look again at this and ask questions like;</p>
<p>Can their functions be outsourced?</p>
<p>Does the said quango duplicate another in the public sector or crowd out an existing or potential one in the private sector?</p>
<p>Can they be relocated to a lower cost location?</p>
<p>Etc.</p>
<p>To be fair, the real progress of the Coalition Government&#8217;s dequangoisation drive has fallen outside of the Cabinet Office&#8217;s review &#8211; the scrapping of the Primary Care Trusts and Strategic Health Authorities giving budgetary control to Doctors and Michael Gove&#8217;s educations reforms, giving schools more control over their budgets, independently of the education quangocracy.</p>
<p>So it&#8217;s time to start again and the Cabinet Office could do worst than produce a full annual NDPB report one place &#8211; including those of the devolved administrations &#8211; <a href="http://www.civilservice.gov.uk/about/resources/ndpbs.aspx" class="broken_link">not done since 2006</a>. That was when a 372 pages long report dropped to 26 in 2007.</p>
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		<title>Regional and Regeneration policies share the same fallacies . . .</title>
		<link>http://www.danlewis.org/2010/12/30/regional-and-regeneration-policies-share-the-same-fallacies/</link>
		<comments>http://www.danlewis.org/2010/12/30/regional-and-regeneration-policies-share-the-same-fallacies/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Dec 2010 11:36:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Lewis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Innovation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.danlewis.org/?p=238</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Writing in the Yorkshire Post today, I described what was wrong with typical regional policy and how to do it much better. I suggested doing effective, boring and unpopular stuff like moving workers to the work (not the other way round) with more low cost roads and buses and paying lower wages and benefits in poorer areas to increase employment. This would do so much more  than taking a bet on  low-return but glamorous infrastructure projects like high speed rail [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/opinion/Dan-Lewis-How-to-create.6673499.jp">Writing in the Yorkshire Post today</a>, I described what was wrong with typical regional policy and how to do it much better. I suggested doing effective, boring and unpopular stuff like moving workers to the work (not the other way round) with more low cost roads and buses and paying lower wages and benefits in poorer areas to increase employment. This would do so much more  than taking a bet on  low-return but glamorous infrastructure projects like high speed rail or shovelling taxpayer funds towards the latest fashionable industries &#8211; <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-11673919">remember Scotland&#8217;s semiconductor industry?</a></p>
<p><img class="alignnone" title="Fife Hyundai Semiconductor Factory - built and never used in 13 years" src="http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/49750000/jpg/_49750082_hyundai-02.jpg" alt="" width="304" height="171" /></p>
<p>It occurred to me later that much the same could be said about regeneration policies. Which brings me back to this event <a href="http://www.danlewis.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/urban-regeneration-to-social-engineering.pdf">I covered for Planning IN London 5 years ago</a> and a speech I gave to the British Urban Regeneration Association <a href="http://www.danlewis.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Rethinking-Quangos-in-Regeneration.pdf">a couple of months later</a>. Apart from big budget quangos of course, they generally share the fallacy of the Big Man &#8211; they know what&#8217;s best.</p>
<p>If only they did !</p>
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		<title>UK Gas supplies &#8211; the pace and focus of change is far from enough</title>
		<link>http://www.danlewis.org/2010/12/09/uk-gas-supplies-the-pace-and-focus-of-change-is-far-from-enough/</link>
		<comments>http://www.danlewis.org/2010/12/09/uk-gas-supplies-the-pace-and-focus-of-change-is-far-from-enough/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Dec 2010 17:15:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Lewis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.danlewis.org/?p=223</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the last 10 days, we&#8217;ve had a surprising amount of news about gas that requires some digestion. Starting with yesterday&#8217;s discovery of shale gas near Blackpool by Cuadrilla Resources &#8211; the best news that town has had in a long time. Then there&#8217;s the ongoing cold snap in the UK combined with a long acknowledge inadequate storage capability. As I wrote a year ago in Securing Our Energy Future Chapter 3: Don&#8217;t Bet on Gas &#8211; The UK Way, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the last 10 days, we&#8217;ve had a surprising amount of news about gas that requires some <em>digestion</em>.</p>
<p>Starting with yesterday&#8217;s <a href="http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/NaturalGas/8272767">discovery of shale gas near Blackpool by Cuadrilla Resources</a> &#8211; the best news that town has had in a long time.</p>
<p>Then there&#8217;s the ongoing cold snap in the UK combined with a long acknowledge inadequate storage capability. As I wrote a year ago in <a href="http://www.economicpolicycentre.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/soefuture.pdf">Securing Our Energy Future</a> <strong><em>Chapter 3: Don&#8217;t Bet on Gas &#8211; The UK Way</em></strong>, <span id="more-223"></span>our storage capacity then stood at 4.34 billion cubic metres (bcm) when OFGEM recommended in 2004 that it should be 10 bcm in 2009. No suprise then that The Sunday Times reported on the 5th December that in this exceptionally long period of cold weather so early in the winter, gas storage levels have been depleted (to 75% rather than a more typical 97% for this time of year), big industrial users were almost forced to shut down,  spot prices are rocketing  and the consumer is beginning to to pay &#8211; big time.</p>
<p>So it speaks volumes about the government lack of energy policy prioritisation that they are so disinterested in Scottish &amp; Southern Electricity&#8217;s plans to <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/40105063" class="broken_link">defer investment in gas storage a month ago because of regulatory uncertainty</a> but very excited about CCS and a shiny new Green Investment Bank. Price stability will only come with long-term contracts and adequate storage which we manifestly do not have.</p>
<p>For all that, it&#8217;s good news to hear that the <a href="http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23904138-petrofac-buys-into-uk-gas-storage-project.do">Gateway storage scheme received a sizeable investment from Petrofac</a> as this is a project that could significantly boost UK storage, by up to 1.5 bcm. Although that will still be way short of what we really need to be secure &#8211; about another 4 bcm.</p>
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		<title>A couple new posts on the Chinese Yuan debate and Plug-in Hybrids</title>
		<link>http://www.danlewis.org/2010/10/12/a-couple-new-posts-on-the-chinese-yuan-debate-and-plug-in-hybrids/</link>
		<comments>http://www.danlewis.org/2010/10/12/a-couple-new-posts-on-the-chinese-yuan-debate-and-plug-in-hybrids/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Oct 2010 15:20:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Lewis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.danlewis.org/?p=219</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ok, I need to update this site a bit more often. I&#8217;ve just written two posts. One for the Economic Policy Centre blog on the brewing China/USA dispute over trade and currency valuations and another for Future Energy Strategies blog on the great potential and thus far unanticipated outcomes of  plug-in hybrids.  Enjoy !]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ok, I need to update this site a bit more often. I&#8217;ve just written two posts. One for the <a href="http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/junebudget_complete.pdf">Economic Policy Centre</a> blog on the <a href="http://www.economicpolicycentre.com/2010/10/12/the-unwelcome-consequences-of-a-us-forced-chinese-yuan-revaluation/">brewing China/USA dispute over trade and currency valuations</a> and another for <a href="http://www.future-es.com">Future Energy Strategies</a> blog on the <a href="http://www.future-es.com/2010/10/for-electrichybrid-cars-the-tangible-advantage-is-cleaner-air/">great potential and thus far unanticipated outcomes of  plug-in hybrids</a>.  Enjoy !</p>
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		<title>Yes, we need Aircraft Carriers and Trident</title>
		<link>http://www.danlewis.org/2010/08/01/yes-we-need-aircraft-carriers-and-trident/</link>
		<comments>http://www.danlewis.org/2010/08/01/yes-we-need-aircraft-carriers-and-trident/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Aug 2010 14:27:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Lewis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.danlewis.org/?p=181</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the ideal world, everyone would share and practice our values of Liberal Democracy or at least feel unthreatened by them and in no way want to undermine our freedom. Unfortunately, only perhaps 1 billion people of this planet&#8217;s 6.8 billion live under liberal democracy,  a billion more  in India have elective government which is becoming more liberal and the remainder exist under various levels of autocracy. So that&#8217;s why we have a defence budget and why I&#8217;m more than [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the ideal world, everyone would share and practice our values of Liberal Democracy or at least feel unthreatened by them and in no way want to undermine our freedom. Unfortunately, only perhaps 1 billion people of this planet&#8217;s 6.8 billion live under liberal democracy,  a billion more  in India have elective government which is becoming more liberal and the remainder exist under various levels of autocracy.</p>
<p>So that&#8217;s why we have a defence budget and why I&#8217;m more than happy to picture an aircraft carrier on my home page.</p>
<p>Today Britain finds itself squeezed between Western Europe that has long lost the will to commit troops in scale to defend its own interests and Obama&#8217;s America, which has proven itself to be all too flattering to its enemies and at best, unsupportive of even its most stalwart allies.</p>
<p>So I&#8217;m very worried at the current spat on defence spending being orchestrated by the Treasury, which looks like a re-run of the outcome of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Defence_White_Paper">1966 White Paper</a> when everyone lost. Back then, the cancellation of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CVA-01">CVA-01</a> large carrier project eventually led to the invasion of the Falkland lslands by a dictatorship which a less forceful Prime Minister would have done nothing about.</p>
<p>And then of course, the disastrous cancellation of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAC_TSR-2">TSR-2</a>, some say on American instruction which hobbled the RAF with sub-standard frontline aircraft for the next generation and a half.</p>
<p>And now the Treasury think they&#8217;re very clever by demanding Trident should be paid for out of the Defence budget which will lead to massive cuts elsewhere in the Armed Forces. Perhaps then the Treasury mandarins might share with us the cost-benefit calculation which shows that the UK would be better off succumbing to nuclear blackmail or a mushroom cloud over London?</p>
<p>My guess is they haven&#8217;t done one.</p>
<p>A pity because by and large, most of us might think that a weapon against which there is no defence is worth having and solves a problem we will never have to deal with. That, on the face of it, is the priceless value of Trident.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/7920208/Having-to-pay-for-Trident-is-the-Ministry-of-Defences-worst-nightmare.html">So writing today in the Sunday Telegraph</a>, General Sir Richard Dannatt is mistaken to believe that without the hugely expensive JSFs, the carriers are doomed. As was picked up in the Sunday Times, the Royal Navy could easily switch to the much cheaper Super Hornet which the US Navy has pledged to keep using for at least another 10 years.</p>
<p>There are literally dozens of choices like this that can be made in the procurement budget. And it&#8217;s just not credible to suggest that &#8220;<em>. . . The answers lie with more and smaller ships, and land-based planes whose range is enhanced by a renegotiated air-to-air refuelling programme</em>&#8220;. I know of no future scenario where the RAF has more rather than less friendly bases to operate from. The only serious response to this reality are long-range large aircraft carriers that can work from anywhere.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s only one thing more expensive than fighting a war and that&#8217;s losing it. Deterrence through strong defence is the cheapest option of them all because it works like an insurance policy and we neither have to fight or lose.</p>
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		<title>The Feed-In-Tariffs &#8211; finally revealed today</title>
		<link>http://www.danlewis.org/2010/02/01/the-feed-in-tariffs-finally-revealed-today/</link>
		<comments>http://www.danlewis.org/2010/02/01/the-feed-in-tariffs-finally-revealed-today/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Feb 2010 14:56:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Lewis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.danlewis.org/?p=146</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ok, here they are. I have to say, they look pretty generous to me. I&#8217;m going to do some back of the envelope calculations and come back with a new table that shows the yield per technology. As I wrote recently in Utility Week, if we really do get a boom in micro-generation from the 1st April when they come into force, this will not be without problems.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ok, <a href="http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/news/pn10_010/pn10_010.aspx" class="broken_link">here they are</a>.</p>
<p>I have to say, they look pretty generous to me. I&#8217;m going to do some back of the envelope calculations and come back with a new table that shows the yield per technology. <a href="http://www.utilityweek.co.uk/features/uk/how-much-microgeneration-can-n.php">As I wrote recently in Utility Week</a>, if we really do get a boom in micro-generation from the 1st April when they come into force, this will not be without problems.</p>
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